Start with simpler markets
Home, draw or away has fewer outcomes than an exact score and is easier to explain and test.
Prediction methods
Probability, not prophecy.
Models organize evidence but cannot eliminate injuries, line-up changes and randomness.
Use calibrated probabilities
Probabilities should total 100% and be compared with implied market probability.
Update the inputs
Team strength, injuries, venue, schedule and price can change a forecast.
Compare before choosing
Recheck live terms after reading the evidence.
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